New study reproduces the NCES May 2019 numbers; the highlights being:
⁍ Public school enrollment is projected to be 'flattish' through 2028 (+3%). All southern states seem to be 'cooling off' following 15 years of very strong growth -except for Texas and Florida who are projected to continue growing at 10%. The Northwest seems to be taking the baton of growth with Washington showing steady, continued growth above 10% from 2000 through 2028.
Tough enrollment numbers ahead through 2028 for New Hampshire, (-11%), New Mexico (-9%), Mississippi (-9%), West Virginia (-9%), Vermont (-9%), Michigan (-8%), Illinois (-7%).
⁍ Private school enrollment is trending upwards again and will hit 6m, possibly this year, up from 4m in 2011-12; boosted primarily by strong growth in grades PreK-8.
Catholic schools continue to bear the brunt of the decline in private school enrollment with no end in sight...
Despite very strong headwinds in Catholic school enrollment, overall private school enrollment is projected to climb back up to 6.2 million students through 2027 (+7%); recovering all losses from the period 2002-2015.
⁍ Charter schools have grown to over 7,000 with enrollment reaching 3.2m students in 2018.
Over 300 charter schools opened in 2017-18, while 238 ceased operations; resulting in immaterial growth in terms of schools. On the flipside, between 2017 and 2018, charter school enrollment is estimated to have increased by more than 150,000 students (or about +5%) -future projections are dependent on upcoming policy changes.